When I talk to plant managers and project developers across Africa and the MENA region, the first question is almost always the same :
“How big does my solar system need to be — and what will it actually cost me?”
It is a fair question. Based on real projects I have observed in Morocco, a 2 MWp on-grid solar autoconsumption system costs approximately 2 million euros — fully installed, no battery storage required.
That is a serious investment. Getting the size right from the beginning is not a technical detail — it is the difference between a project that delivers strong returns for 25 years and one that quietly underperforms from day one.
In this article I will walk you through the sizing process simply and honestly — no complicated formulas, no marketing. Just the logic that works on real industrial projects.
Disclosure: This article contains affiliate links. If you purchase through these links, I may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. I only recommend technical resources that I consider genuinely useful for industrial solar professionals working in Africa and the MENA region.
Start with one honest question
Before any calculation, before any contractor conversation, ask yourself one question :
“How much electricity does my facility actually consume during daylight hours?”
Not the peak demand on your utility bill. Not the nameplate capacity of your equipment. Your real average consumption during the hours the sun shines — typically 7am to 6pm.
This single number drives everything else. If you do not know it, install a power logger for 30 days before doing anything else. In Morocco this costs approximately 500 to 1,000 USD. On a 2 million euro project, it is the best money you will spend.
The simple sizing logic
Here is the core principle I apply on every industrial solar project :
Size your solar system to cover 70 to 80% of your average daytime consumption — not your peak demand.
Why not 100%? Because in Morocco and most MENA markets, net metering for industrial clients pays very little for electricity exported back to the grid. Any production beyond what your facility immediately consumes is largely wasted.
Staying at 70 to 80% coverage keeps your self-consumption ratio close to 100% — meaning almost every kilowatt-hour your panels produce gets used directly by your facility. This maximises your financial return on every euro invested.
A real example from Morocco
Let me make this concrete with a real example.
The facility
An industrial plant in Morocco with an average daytime electricity demand of 1,800 kW during production hours.
The target
Cover 75% of daytime consumption with solar — on-grid, no battery storage.
The result
A 2 MWp solar system is the right size for this facility.
Here is what that looks like in practice :
2,940 solar panels — bifacial monocrystalline, 680 Wp each
2 to 4 hectares of land or large roof surface required
3.3 million kWh of clean electricity produced every year
75% of daytime consumption covered by solar energy
Simple. No complicated mathematics needed to understand the result.
What does this investment actually return?
This is the question that matters most to any serious investor. Here are the real numbers for a 2 MWp system in Morocco :
The investment
Total installed cost : approximately 2 million USD — based on real project costs I have observed in Morocco.
The annual savings
Industrial electricity tariff in Morocco : approximately 0.11 USD per kWh
Annual solar production : 3.3 million kWh
Annual electricity bill savings : approximately 360,000 USD per year
The return
Simple payback period : 5 to 7 years
Project lifetime : 25 to 30 years
IRR : approximately 12 to 18% depending on financing
Total net savings over 25 years : approximately 7 to 9 million USD
To put this in perspective — a 2 million USD investment that saves 360,000 USD every year for 25 years is one of the most reliable industrial investments available in Morocco today. Very few capital investments in heavy industry deliver this kind of predictable, long-term return.
Three things that affect your numbers
Every project is different. These three factors will move your numbers up or down :
Your location
Southern Morocco receives more sunlight than the north. More sun means more production means better returns. A project in Agadir will outperform a similar project in Tangier by 8 to 12% in annual energy yield.
Your electricity tariff
Industrial tariffs in Morocco vary depending on your voltage level and consumption profile. The higher your current electricity cost, the faster your solar investment pays back. If you are paying above 0.12 USD per kWh, your returns will be even stronger than the example above.
Your load profile
A facility that runs continuously during daylight hours — cement plants, processing facilities, manufacturing lines — gets maximum value from solar. A facility with irregular or unpredictable demand needs more careful sizing to avoid wasted production.
One important thing most investors miss
On-grid solar autoconsumption without battery storage is the right choice for most industrial facilities in Morocco today — and here is why.
Batteries add significant cost — typically 30 to 50% on top of the base system price. For a facility that operates primarily during daylight hours, batteries provide very little additional value. The economics simply do not justify the added investment at current battery prices.
The on-grid model — solar produces during the day, grid covers the rest — is simpler, cheaper, and more reliable. It is the model that delivers the strongest IRR for industrial clients in this region right now.
What to do next
If you are evaluating a solar investment for an industrial facility in Africa or the MENA region, here are the three concrete steps I recommend before talking to any contractor :
Step 1 — Measure your real daytime load for 30 days. Do not rely on your utility bill alone.
Step 2 — Get a preliminary sizing based on 70 to 80% of your average daytime demand — not your peak.
Step 3 — Request a PVsyst simulation report from your contractor. This is the industry-standard yield model that banks and investors require for project financing. Without it, your financial projections are estimates. With it, they are bankable.
The theoretical foundation behind yield simulation is covered in detail in Solar Energy Engineering: Processes and Systems by Soteris Kalogirou. What makes this book particularly relevant for engineers working in Africa and MENA is its treatment of AI applications for solar modelling — a topic I will be covering in depth in future articles on this blog.
A correctly sized 2 MWp solar autoconsumption system for an industrial facility in Morocco costs approximately 2 million USD — based on real project costs I have observed on the ground. It saves around 360,000 USD every year on electricity bills and pays itself back in 5 to 7 years.
Over 25 years, with proper installation and maintenance, this is one of the most reliable and profitable infrastructure investments available to industrial operators in Africa and the MENA region.
The sizing process is not complicated — but it requires honest data and honest analysis from the beginning. That is what I try to provide on this blog.
If you are working on a solar project for an industrial facility and want a second opinion on your numbers — the contact form is open.
More articles coming soon — O&M best practices, performance monitoring, and AI applications for industrial solar supervision.
Publié par :
Solar PV MENA Expert
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Disclosure: This article contains affiliate links. If you purchase through these links, I may earn a small commission at no extra cost to you. I only recommend technical resources that I consider genuinely useful for industrial solar professionals working in Africa and the MENA region.